Iran and the Gaza – US made problems?
The US war in Iraq has subtly, but crucially, shifted the balance of power in the Middle East. The ramifications are still playing out, can be seen at work in the Israeli attacks on the Gaza, and may be the single most important policy bungle that costs the West in the coming years. President Bush was, always and at best, a flawed man with a limited understanding of geopolitics. He did not have the ability to foresee the future damage of the policies he pursued while in office. There was, prior to the Iraq war, a cancelling out effect that Iraq had, on Iran’s desire to extend its influence in the region. Israel, Iraq and Israel – the Middle East power players at the time – had a settled pattern of power, and a give-and-take policy set that maintained the status quo. The US led invasion of Iraq did two things. It removed a strong man, Saddam Hussein, a Sunni leader from the equation. All in the Middle East kept one eye on Hussein, which distracted them from other power plays. The new Iraqi government has a Shia dominant composition. The change of power in Iraq brings the country into closer alliance with Iran. Importantly, deposing Hussein removed a threat from Iran’s borders. This left Iran free to focus on broader regional alliances, and the arming of other groups, where in the past it was more likely to have kept these arms for its own defense. Iran launched into a nuclear program,through a strengthened alliance with Russia. Iran may well be moving towards a nuclear weapon putting it, a least militarily, on a level playing field with Israel. In essence, the US invasion of Iraq destroyed the rather dysfunctional balance of power in the region, and created a whole new reality for the West to face in the Middle East. Yet another Bush legacy for the US to rue in the years to come.
The Arab nations reaction to the Israeli attacks on the Gaza indicate just how troubling this new power bloc arrangement is. The lack of a unified Arab response towards Israeli shows how much factionalism and politics are splintering the Arab League. The US-Arab partner nations - Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan – are less vocal and helpful to presenting a common Arab front in terms of a reaction to Israel’s actions. Egypt has, in fact, been complicit with Israel in the Gaza blockade, infuriating many Arab nations. Even in this time of humanitarian crisis, Egypt has failed to fully open the Rafah border to wounded and fleeing Palestinians from the Gaza. Egypt fears that Hamas may flow into its country in numbers, and create a new based of operations there. This Egypt cannot allow, if it is to follow its political objectives of alignment with the West and Israel. This has led to tragic scenes at the border, including shooting and fatalities as Egypt repels its fellow Arabs in Palestine from fleeing Gaza into Egypt sanctuary, leaving them to the mercy of the Israeli air bombardment.
Saud Al-Faisal, the Saudi Arabia Foreign Minister, in statements today also indicates that the Gaza cannot expect any help from the Saudis. Saud said, “This terrible massacre would not have happened if the Palestinian people were united behind one leadership speaking in one voice. We are telling our Palestinian brothers that your Arab nation cannot extend a real helping hand if you don’t extend your own hands to each other with love.” Jordan’s statements on the Israeli attacks has also been muted. Why have these Arab nations turned their backs on Hamas and the Gaza? It is because of Iran’s new burgeoning power in the region. Iran has been courting Hamas – equipping them with improved Iranian and Chinese manufactured weaponry – and the Arab nations see the destruction of Hamas in the Gaza, as do the Israelis, as a punch in the nose for Iran. Iran is being punished in proxy in the Gaza for offering support to Hamas. Israel is providing the military lesson, but it appears as though it is with the tacit approval of certain Arab nations.
Even Palestinian is turning on Palestinian as this new power structure in the region gets established. As we reported earlier in the week, Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president based in the West Bank, has blamed Hamas for triggering the raids on Gaza, by not extending a six-month truce with the Jewish state. He has also blamed Hamas, which controls the coastal Gaza Strip territory, for disrupting national unity talks that could have paved the way for general and presidential elections. He said, “We have warned of this grave danger. We talked to them [Hamas] and we told them, ‘please, we ask you, do not end the truce. Let the truce continue and not stop”, so that we could have avoided what happened.” It seems as though the Palestinians in the Gaza have no one supporting their plight except Iran. This will merely push Hamas further towards Iranian influence, an end result that neither Israel or the West wants, but one that the current Israeli military campaign will result in.
Hamas may have expected more of a reaction from Hezbollah in Lebanon, but so far other than some rhetoric, no substantive aid has been forthcoming. Syria has reacted diplomatically however, suspending the indirect peace negotiations with Israel, and voicing its displeasure passionately. So, it appears the Arab nations are divided, but will that situation last? Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia are sure supporters of the West in this new struggle for regional dominance. Israel is an extension of US foreign policy in the region so will follow what cues it is given. Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran form a formidable military and economic bloc, and one that is of natural concern to Israel. Israel will need to think long and hard before it extends its military actions in those directions. Syria has a somewhat bi-polar relationship with Iran, part friend and part competitor, so it needs to be watched to see which way it decides to move. There are a plethora of other Arab nations that oscillate between the two power blocs, or who are aligned to one or the other, but whose strength is limited in effect. It is almost if all these powers – Western, Arab and Israeli – are circling Iran, but lack the will to confront Iran directly. There are a variety of political and military proxy skirmishes but no one, at least as of yet, is willing to take the fight directly into Iran. Iraq will move alongside Iran as soon as the US and other foreign troops leave over the next few years. Iran grows stronger and extends its partnership, month over month, so grows stronger not more isolated as the West hoped.
The West has created its very own ticking time bomb with Iran. By disturbing the balance of power, sitting back and letting Israel do the ‘dirty work’ of its policy ramifications, and failing in any meaningful way to engage directly with Iran, it has made a problem with long term repercussions. If Iran does join the nuclear club, the US will have helped to seal the fate of a brand new set of issues with wven greater potential consequences. Israel will not feel safe in such a landscape, and nor will many Arab nations who have not always been the best of partners for Iran. The resolution is not clear, but the need to find one is urgent. The costs today are death and mayhem, the costs in the future if a solution is not found, may be measured at a much higher level. The Middle East stands at a precipice. There is danger if it moves forwards and there is danger if it steps back. The issue now is Iran, and how best to engage with Tehran, but the bombardment of Gaza is a bloody and sad consequence to not dealing with that key priority. In this instance, as much as the US population doesn’t want to hear it or have the stomach for it, it is a case of ‘you broke it and you better fix it’ – quickly, efficiently and properly. There is a price for misconceived Foreign Policy of this magnitude. Bush in retirement will not have to pay it, but the people he governed so inexpertly, surely will.
