Inauguration Day.. celebration and deliberation
Today is Obama’s day to celebrate and take his place in the history books. However, after the parties are done, the streamers washed away from the streets and champagne bottles put in the recycling bin, there is important work to be done. This day should also be a day of reflection. We need to consider the US as it is – good, bad and ugly – and consider what the country will become under Obama’s tenure
There are many that will view today through veils of ideological dogma, either ecstatic at a black Democratic President coming to office or bitter that a retiring Republican lost the chance for a continuance of party reign. For the others, the non-partisan, it is more important to monitor the early days of Obama’s governance and especially how the new Secretary of State, Hilary Clinton, implements a new set of foreign policies.
Obama will get little grace period. He has domestic and economic priorities. He also inherits a complex set of foreign policy legacies. Obama will need to sketch out quickly his new approach, a balanced set of rewards and restrictions for the world that will immediately set the tone of his government. He has to face Israel and Palestine, who have temporarily put down their weapons and turned their face to Washington for guidance. Iraq in the middle of regional ballots, a precursor to the elections to come soon, is still plagued by sectarian violence but now focused on the members of contesting parties. He has the long shadow of Iran, itself in the throes of pre-election agitation, and the issue of international nuclear policy. He has Syria in the wings, ready to be engaged if the US would but talk to them. He has the Arab League, dysfunctional and factionalized, seemingly stuck in a disagreement about how to react to the Gaza. He has Latin-America, belligerent and ambitious, eager to voice disapproval of the US at any time. Africa is awash with war, rebellion and humanitarian crisis. Russia, always Russia, eager to regain its imperialistic empire is a thorn to the East. Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, a veritable cocktail of Presidential crisis points. Obama’s to do list is endless and, unfortunately, the foreign policy of the US is at one of its lowest ebbs in living memory.
In reality, Obama cannot deal with every issue in that list, or the myriad of others that confront him, at one time. The role of the President, according to many commentators, is to make the priority list. What are the first 3 things that the country will deal with, if you like. What priorities Obama selects will be telling in may ways. It may make or break the first part of his Presidency. Everyone is clamoring for his attention, but he cannot give everyone equal time. Obama appears to have managed the transition period well. There was the odd hiccup in the selection process but nothing of real note. His resolute silence on issues such as the Gaza has earned him some criticism, but was an obedience of protocol. It is what he does know in the next days, weeks and months that will determine the new America that the world sees.
We would assume that Ms. Clinton already has her bags packed, tickets ready and is briefed on her first set of visits. Where she goes and what she says are of paramount importance to foreign policy analysts. Will Israel earn a rebuke or will it be the same tired old policy? Will the US become a full partner in the United Nations Security Council or continue its history of veto? While many commentators are looking towards the economy, there are many of equally in trepidation at his first steps in the world of international diplomacy. If he falters there, the die will be cast. There is a collective pause in the world today as they await the new President. His speech will be torn part for nuance. Every foreign consul, envoy and ambassador will be expected to report back to their motherland on the temperature towards them from Washington. Today should be a celebration but marked with deliberation too. The world waits – we know what we saw and heard in the days leading up to the new President’s inauguration, however, it is in the days after that the decisions as to his approach will be evidenced. A contact in Pakistan just emailed with the line of the day, he said that ‘he hopes that Obama has the vision of the 1st President, not the myopia of the 43rd. Never has the world’s hopes or expectations been set so high.’ That the view from the heartland of US warfare and a central front in the battle against Taliban and Al Qaeda.
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