The Daily Clarity

Arms contracts – the underbelly of Foreign Policy

The US foreign policy of military sales and assistance to select partners is one of the most  powerful and dangerous  tools in its armory.In provisioning arms to its friends, it can easily disturb delicate regional balances. By ill-considered transactions it can arm friends that later turn into enemies,  such as happened with the Taliban. In terms of the worldwide arms business, the US is the consumer nation. The US is responsible for around 50% of the total worldwide arms business. Countries are eager to engage in arms trade with the US, in either a vendor or partner relationship.  Anyone involved in the trade has their eyes on the US. The next  Top 20 countries are only  responsible for around 20% of all arms sales,  so the power is relatively concentrated. Many developing nations want to be invited to eat a the the top table, and the best way to get invited is to be an ally of the US. It is unlikely, despite the change mantra, that much will change when it comes to global arms proliferation and the proxy military technology sales that drive the foreign policy engine?  While there is  talk of diplomacy, and visits of US personnel to other countries, many of these state visits are  used to negotiate new arms deals and so gain cooperation with a US agenda.

For example, in 2007, according to a report produced by Congressional Research Services, the US gave $3 Billion of military aid to Israel. That would seem to be in keeping with the US policy positions. What doesn’t gather much discussion is that Israel is the third largest arms exporter in the world. In 2006, for example, Israel exported $4.2 Billion worth of arms to other countries. Also, Israel doesn’t just get military aid from the US, though that it its largest partner, Britain and other European countries also pursue the same sort of agreements so the total military aid supplied will be much higher in total. Given that Israel is viewed as a besieged nation and would not sell arms to its neighbors, naturally, where do these exports go? Israel arms exports go to other hot spots in the world. A partial list includes South Africa, Argentina, China, Singapore, Turkey, India and Ethiopia. It is a nice trade for Israel with $3 billion plus coming in each year to help them defend themselves and over $4 billion going out as they on-sell the military arms and technology to others. The US is by proxy selling arms to China and others  countries it distrusts . There is an irony here, as the US often finds itself facing its own armaments in countries where it moves to intercede, such as Afghanistan. Israel, in addition to the government aid, also gets $1.5 billion a year in private donations from individuals or foundations in the US. All this for a country with a population of less than 8 million. On a per head basis, a great deal of Israeli wealth relies on the transfer in and out of military technology.

The US also buys a lot of co-operation from other partners through the granting of arms sales. Again ironic, that the US has committed to provide Egypt with $13 billion of arms sales over the next ten years. At the same time it agreed to sell $20 billion worth to Saudi Arabia and five other Gulf states. The US also has less public deals with Turkey and Jordan. All these countries are now, at least temporarily, friends of the US. If times change however, these arms sales might come back to hurt Israel directly, and US interests in the region indirectly. Given that these arms contracts are multi-year commitments that easily outlast a Presidential term, how much can President Obama really shape foreign policy? If a new incumbent was to cancel these contracts he would be faced with unhappy partners and a severing of critical foreign relations. One can also see how countries such as Iran surrounded by recipients of US military largess are somewhat unwilling to slow down their own arms growth or nuclear ambitions.  If you follow the circle – the US sells to Israel, who export to China, who then sell to Iran. By proxy, whether intentional or not,  the US just assisted Iran to escalate its military capacity. This is the soft  underbelly of foreign policy and one that any  four year term US President will have difficulty in affecting. So though the US people voted  for  “Change”,  how much change they will get in terms of foreign arms contracts,  is questionable.