The Daily Clarity

Lebanese elections – the truth, and the whole truth

In relation to Hezbollah and the upcoming elections in Lebanon, we get the distinct impression that people are trying to influence our opinions. We have discussed before the very real practice of perception management (or as the Israelis term it, hasbara), and even though we don’t get  to vote in the Lebanese election, the agenda is being manipulated for us on the world stage.

Firstly, we have the sudden apparent ‘leaking’ of a  dastardly Israeli plot to assassinate Hezbollah Chief Nasrallah. If we took  a cynical view of regional politics, we rather think this is a rather blunt attempt by Hezbollah supporters to engender sympathy of a man in danger of the ultimate persecution, who deserves one’s vote as a fighter for freedom and against the evils of Israel:

Israel is plotting to assassinate Hizbullah chief Hassan Nasrallah, and its upcoming home front drill is in fact a general rehearsal for the anticipated repercussions of the targeted killing, Hizbullah senior Nawaf al-Mussawi said

Speaking to London pan-Arabic newspaper Al Sharq al-Awsat in an interview published Friday, al-Mussawi was referring to the third home front exercise to be held in Israel since the Second Lebanon War in 2006 which, for the first time, will include the entire population- ‘Israel is planning to assassinate Nasrallah’ | Middle East |

Such crude opinion management is not restricted to Hezbollah though, the US Administration can be just as inexpert and blatant. Vice President Biden in an amusing attempt at being enigmatic and veiled, on his visit to Beirut tried to buy votes for parties that oppose Hezbollah by ‘implying’ US Aid is linked to political freedom.  In the same breath (and from the other side of his mouth), he also said that this did not mean the US was supporting any one particular party.

Washington will evaluate its assistance to Lebanon based on policies of the new government to be formed after the June 7 parliamentary vote, United States Vice President Joe Biden said Friday.

“The U.S. will evaluate the shape of its assistance program based on the policies of the new government,” Biden told reporters after meeting President Michel Suleiman on his first visit to the Middle East since taking office.

The June 7 vote will pit the current U.S.-backed majority in parliament against a Hezbollah-led coalition backed by Syria and Iran. Analysts say Hezbollah and its allies stand a good chance of winning the vote.

Biden said his visit to Lebanon, the first by a U.S. vice president in nearly three decades, was not aimed at interfering in the country’s internal politics.

“I did not come here to back any party,” Biden said – Middle East News | US aid to Lebanon based on vote results:

Not to be left out, the ‘other’ Arab states - often a nebulous referral to US allies such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordon - are also apparently suddenly, in the midst of the run-up to the Lebanese election, existentialy concerned about the role of Hezbollah in the region. This sets up nicely for the debate on the Sunni-Shia divide,  and the regional influence of Iran, so in this campaign we detect that hand of Israel.:

Arab governments are starting to see the fingerprints of Lebanon’s Hezbollah all over the Middle East, adding to their growing alarm over Iran’s power and a widening Sunni-Shiite rift.

The worry comes at a time when Hezbollah, a Shiite militant group and political party backed by Iran, already is expected to make strong political gains inside Lebanon in June 7 elections.

The double whammy by Hezbollah – of growing political influence at home, coupled with more outreach abroad – has put the squeeze on traditional but waning Arab powers like Egypt, alraedy rattled by President Barack Obama’s outreach to their foe Iran.

“Hezbollah ….. (now) plays a role that is heavier, more important and influential than many Arab nations,” said Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, a Lebanese expert on the group- AP News: Hezbollah’s growing regional role piques Arabs.

So if we were of a gullible ilk, we would not know which of the stories to believe. Is Nasrallah in danger of imminent Israeli assassination? Is Washington keen to see democracy in action, regardless of the outcome, as it learned to regret subsequently in Gaza? Are the massed Arab nations fearful of a Hezbollah victory advancing Iran’s regional hegemony? In reality, like many perception management campaigns there are elements of truth in all these stories, but all are in actuality, crude attempts to sway public opinion for or against. All election campaigns use much the same ploys, but rarely so crudely and so easily identifiably.