The power struggle within Bahrain

The jury remains out on whether the Sunni-Shia factionalism violence will get much worse before it gets better. Prominent academics such as Reza Aslan claim that Islam is in a period of reform, with some Islamic nations looking for a revisionist positioning to more meaningfully engage with the modern world. Aslan, himself a Shia, goes on to say that this reform will be driven by the Shia nations. He said, “A lot of scholars, myself included, believe the future of Islam, especially Islamic democracy, rests in the Shia world. It’s Iran and Iraq where the most exciting experiments are being carried out”

While at a macro level Aslan may be correct, this does cause substantive unrest in countries with Shiite majority populations government by a Sunni elite. This was the case in Hussein-era Iraq, and is the current state of play in the tiny state of Bahrain. Bahrain may well be a micro study of the greater sociological and governmental change occurringin the region. If the Sunni-Shia factionalism does escalate this could put major players such as Iran, Saudi, Egypt and Jordan into a period of substantial unrest. Bahrain may well be a micro study of the greater sociological and governmental change occurring in the region, and will be watched closely by others for potential learnings:

Bahrain is tiny with only 530,000 citizens in an island nation smaller than New York City. But it is a key U.S. ally, home to the Navy’s 5th Fleet, in the strategic and oil-rich Persian Gulf.

It also lies on a fault line in the standoff dividing the Middle East, where Sunni Arab governments fear any sign of the growing power of Shiite Iran.

Bahrain’s Shiites say they have nothing to do with Iran and are only seeking equality in a country where they are the majority. But their demands are seen by many Sunnis as a stalking horse for Tehran’s regional ambitions.

“The question now that the Arab world is facing is the question of loyalty – how you identify yourself,” said Mustafa Alani, a security expert at the Gulf Research Center in Dubai.

Other Arab nations with Shiite populations watch Bahrain closely. If Bahrain’s sectarian divide gets out of control, it could inflame tensions in other areas where Shiites advocate for more rights such as Saudi Arabia.