The Daily Clarity

Are Muslims finally marginalizing Al Qaeda?

There is a growing body of evidence that Al Qaeda and its jihadist philosophies are under attack by influential Muslim thinkers. According to both Western and regional intelligence, Al Qaeda is finding recruitment far more difficult than in the past. Al Qaeda was never a large organization, estimates place its size at its zenith at around 2,000 – 3,000 active members. Analysts now estimate a tenfold reduction in its strength, and that it is now comprised of only around 200 active personnel. Al Qaeda sympathetic factions are still active in Yemen and the Horn of Africa, but their representation in the Middle East countries has reduced greatly.

There is even talk of the Taliban turning a cold shoulder on them. “Al-Qaida has become a liability for the Taliban”, according to Mustafa Alani, a terrorism expert at the Gulf research centre in Dubai. He visited Waziristan in July. “There is a good possibility that the Pakistanis or the Americans will be able to get good intelligence on the ground and kill Bin Laden.” The death of Bin Laden, especially with hard photographic evidence would do much to put the final dagger into the Al Qaeda hierarchy, which is already slowly bleeding to death according to many commentators.

There are also ex-jihadists calling into question the legitimacy of  Al Qaeda’s theological ideology. Senior leaders of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG), who recently ceased military actions, just published treatise a revising their previous understanding of jihad. The text, entitled “the Book of Correctional Studies” (kitab al-dirasat al-tashihiyya). This text  adds to a rowing body of work by former militants challenging al-Qaida on theological grounds. According to Thomas Hegghammer, a member of the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton and an associate at Harvard Kennedy School, the trend started with al-Gamaa al-Islamiya in Egypt, continued with Dr Fadl and now LIFG is continuing the theological barrage on Al Qaeda. Other works also refuting Al Qaeda’s legitimacy include Muhammad Haniff Hassan’s “Unlicensed to Kill”, and Ihsanic intelligence’s “The Hijacked Caravan”. The most effective means of delegitimizing  Al Qaeada will be attacks from within the broader Islamic community.

According to a recent report in the British media, many are predicting that Al Qaeda has also become impotent in being able to strike at the West as its resources decline. This becomes a self-fulfilling spiral, as Al Qaeda is less successful in impact, this leads to a diminishing perception of importance among the young Muslims, and recruitment efforts falter, further reducing Al Qaeda’s capacities.

Intelligence agencies are watching closely to see if Bin Laden issues a message marking tomorrow’s 9/11 anniversary, as he has in the past, or leaves it to Zawahiri. Last week one Islamist website promised a “Ramadan gift” from the al-Qaida leader but removed the posting without explanation.

Amid a mood of cautious optimism, some experts talk of a “tipping point” in the fight against al-Qaida. Others argue that only Bin Laden’s death will bring significant change. But most agree that the failure to carry out spectacular mass attacks in the west since the 2005 London bombings has weakened the group’s “brand appeal” and power to recruit.

“In order to stay relevant al-Qaida have to prove themselves capable and they haven’t been able to do that,” said Norwegian scholar Brynjar Lia.

Popular sympathy, which drained away because of sectarian killings in Iraq, has dwindled further this year. In Saudi Arabia, according to a recent intelligence report, 60-70% of information aboutal- Qaida suspects now comes from relatives, friends and neighbours, not from security agencies or surveillance.

Al-Qaida faces recruitment crisis, anti-terrorism experts say | World news | guardian.co.uk

For a more detailed analysis of some of the infighting, a good source for researchers can be found at the website of researcher, Jarret Brachman. He is studying the splintering of the factions and draws the following conclusions:

My assumption is that al-Qaida will initially dismiss this out-of-hand because, like Sayyid Imam, some of the authors remain imprisoned. However, Libya has wisely begun high-profile releases of some prisoners and has even allowed them to speak on camera to Al-Jazeera.

AQ will say, “well look at what happened to Ibn al-Sheikh al-Libi – the Libyans are clearly forcing their hand.” If the Libyans are smart, they’ll let the senior LIFG authors of this publication start giving open and unrestricted interviews to the international press and keep government commentary to a minimum.

Hopefully, these revisions will snowball forcing AQ’s hand to respond. I’m guessing that the primary responders will be: Abu Yahya, Abdullah Sa’id, Atiyah abd al-Rahman and Al-Zawahiri. We’ll likely see follow-ups from Hani al-Siba’i and other supporters.

The Obama Administration ought to simply say: “These revisions mark the birth of a new day for Libya and one more nail in the coffin ofal- Qaida.”

LIFG’s Ideological Revisions Imminent « JARRET BRACHMAN DOT NET

What these developments do present is an opportunity for the West, and especially the US, to vary its language. It needs to isolate Al Qaeda into national agendas, and away from having potential transnational appeal. The issues that cause Muslim radicalization are primarily issues of frustration of political freedom and self-determination as we have reported previously. The Gallup Poll cited in that report drew the same conclusion, when it said, “Generally, the radical group is characterized by a sense of political frustration and the feeling that Muslims are both humiliated and threatened by the West. The result is a greater sense of urgency to protect their cultural identity — and thus, the justification of extremist means as well as a great deal of willingness to make extreme sacrifices”.

If the West can detach Al Qaeda from the Taliban, Afghanistan takes on different dimensions as reconciling with a primarily nationalistic movement. Al Qaeda has attempted to spread the conflict by identifying a common jihadist movement against Western aggression. By treating each involvement as one of nationalistic agenda, such as in Afghanistan and Iraq, this could lead to a further neutering if the Al Qaeda rhetoric. The West needs to exploit any chink in this armor, and the movement to attack Al Qaeda from within applauded. However, the West must let the internal Islamist arguments run their own course, as if they too quickly rush to support the moderate Muslims, those voices of reason may soon be perceived as Western controlled. These developments are fascinating and require close monitoring, but it is a trend the West should hope gains momentum.