Tehran, natural gas and the avoidance of sanctions
A recent vocal comment made by a hawkish US commentator on a news site avowed that proposed sanctions against Iran by the West would bring Tehran to its knees. It is indicative of a current mind-set that the US is the Atlas of superpowers still, and all must bend to its will. This “informed” insider stated that if the West denied Iran access to gas then it would only a matter of months before Tehran would come cap in hand to the West begging for relief. This sort of blunt and naïve approach to the effectiveness of sanctions is what passes in the US for insight in foreign policy. Sanctions don’t often work – they leak like a sieve, primarily impact the poorer sections of the populace and so have limited effect on dictatorial powers within a nation.
The fact that sanctions are ineffective in the vast majority of cases is particularly true in relation to Iran. Tehran is far more capable of maneuvering around such basic blockades than many give them credit for. Iran has already made alternative arrangements and has reached terms with Turkmenistan to import 33 million cubic meters of natural gas a day through a new pipeline. This will all be completed by mid-December. Bearing in mind that Turkmenistan could also provide Tehran with refined oil then the sanctions may be more a feel good for the West rather than any real inconvenience to Tehran. One can also not ignore the invisible hand of Russia in all this. While Russia says one thing in the UN Security Council it does another in reality. Russia has undertaken joint military exercises with Turkmenistan to demonstrate to all that any attack on that pipeline and the currency coming out of Tehran is off limits. The Persian and Russian minds are much more complex than many in Washington give credence.
Iranian and Turkmen presidents have already agreed in a phone conversation that the new pipeline be completed by the end of the year.
The new pipeline is to stretch across the two countries and it will increase gas exports to Iran by 8 million cubic meters per day. Iran is now receiving 25 million cubic meters of Turkmenistan’s gas daily.
Mir Kazemi continued the two countries have expressed willingness to expand trade, imports, transit as well as gas and oil swap.
Also regarding Turkmenistan’s gas transit to Turkey, he said, “if Turkey is willing to purchase Turkmenistan’s gas, it should enters into talks with Iran.”
Iran and Turkey signed an agreement last November according to which Iran could send gas to Europe through Turkey with the same amount that Turkey receives Turkmenistan’s gas through Iran, he added.
The agreement was extended for 3 months after Turkish Prime Minister’s recent trip to Iran, he noted.
Turkmenistan’s Vice President on gas and oil said, “there is no problem between the two countries on gas and oil sections.”
Iran to import 33 million cubic meters of Turkmen gas by mid December
