Last week we covered some of the initiatives that “moderate” Muslims are undertaking to marginalize the jihadists that undermine the religion. The concept of fatwa has much abused of late. There are non-clerics issuing Fatwas left and right, there are even TV stations where viewers can request a fatwa  via an SMS text, This makes a mockery of what a fatwa truly is:

A fatwa in the Islamic faith is a religious opinion concerning Islamic law issued by an Islamic scholar. In Sunni  Islam any fatwa is non-binding, whereas in Shia Islam it could be considered by an individual as binding, depending on his or her relation to the scholar. The person who issues a fatwa is called, in that respect, a Mufti, i.e. an issuer of fatwa. This is not necessarily a formal position since most Muslims argue that anyone trained in Islamic law may give an opinion (fatwa) on its teachings – Fatwa – Wikipedia

So when Osama Bin Laden issues a supposed fatwa its legitimacy is highly questionable. Controversial and high profile fatwas such as the one issued against Salman Rushdie calling for his death, again ore of dubious authenticity. It is also forgotten that fatwas can also have positive impacts. For example, it is not widely publicized that the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has issued a fatwa against Iran developing nuclear weapons. So, one of the highest the latest fatwas issued should be welcomed as good news. Dr Tahirul Qadri, founder of Minhaj ul Quran, a Pakistani non-political, non-sectarian, movement has issued a fatwa stating suicide bombings and terrorism are un-Islamic and scripturally forbidden. This is significant as Minhaj ul Quran has representation in over 100 countries and its broad-based and Sufi traditions make it popular among young Muslims, especially the young Pakistan diaspora.

Next week, here in Britain, one such renowned Muslim opinion-former will deliver a hard-hitting fatwa against suicide bombings and terrorism. Founder of the vast Pakistani grassroots movement known as Minhaj ul Quran, Dr Tahirul Qadri has authored an unprecedented 600-page fatwa on why suicide bombings and terrorism are un-Islamic and scripturally forbidden. This is likely to be a powerful, popular fatwa from a much loved, inspiring scholar of Islam.

Earlier this month, invitations to attend the launch of the fatwa went to most parliamentarians. A leading Labour MP friend wrote the following lines in an email to me: Is this helpful? Do we need a fatwa to say suicide bombing is wrong? Surely it should be just part of being a human being?

Well, yes and no. If our politicians and others ignore the value of moderate Muslim leaders coming out with fatwas against terrorism, not only do we close down an important and emerging public space, we also forget our own history of progress. After all, John Locke's works on tolerance were nothing more than Christian fatwas in the midst of 17th century European wars of religion. Locke wrote with references to the Bible. His arguments were rooted in theology

Fatwas can be a force for good | Ed Husain | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk

To many Westerners Pakistan is an enigma. They are served simplistic picture by the media of a complex country told that is extremely poor, a  sometime ally, nuclear armed,  but suspected of having a sympathy for the Taliban and an age old grudge against India. . Even the most well-informed Western commentators talk about it in a form of abstraction, a regional fault line, a failing state,  or a central front in the long-abased War on Terror.

It is in this world, that the Taliban live and breathe. It is against this backdrop that the Western analysts analyze, dissect, and rationalize the human intelligence received from there. However, Pakistan is far more than this. It is a complex, multi-dimensional and conflicted land. It is the maelstrom of people, the strength-sapping heat, the assault on the senses of the walls of noise, smell, color, movement, and always an absence of easy access to silence or space. If you haven’t experienced the sheer crush of humanity and abject poverty in Asia, it is hard to understand the psyche that produces the potential for the Taliban.

The real Pakistan exists in snippets such as in the refugee camps where you can hear a child say to another, as quoted in a beautiful article by Jemima Khan, “..Two children are fighting over coloured crayons when I arrive. A girl with blistered burns on her face from the sun shouts at a small boy who turns out to be her brother: “If you don’t give them back to me I’ll tell the Taliban and they’ll cut your throat.”

If you can’t stomach another inhuman data analysis about the state of Pakistan, the cruelty of the resurgent Taliban, or the Swat Valley bloodshed, then just read Jemima Khan’s piece about a world where the children joke that the only thing worse than being caught by the Taliban is being rescued by the Pakistan Army.  If you do, then you will  be closer than many to understanding the real conditions on the ground in Pakistan, and why when you hear the phrase ‘today another drone attack in Pakistan…’ it has more dimensions than the media often presents We will create a new reality in the region through engagement and encouraging moderating endeavors within Pakistani society, not through force of will or the blunt application of military might. In the long term, the only sustainable change in any country comes from within which is why when we read examples of free creative expression in Pakistan, we see them as a nation move closer to the dream of peaceful coexistence.

Pakistan’s traditional cultural capital of Lahore received a much-needed dose of glamour this week as it played host to the country’s second-ever fashion week.

Amid a backdrop of tight security including armed guards, police and airport-style scanning, dozens of models took to the catwalk to showcase the works of Pakistan’s top 32 designers at the city’s Royal Palm Golf and Country Club.

Over the past year or so, several cultural events, including the annual World Performing Arts festival, have been canceled after receiving bomb threats from vigilante groups sympathetic to the Taliban. Last April, the Sri Lankan cricket team fled the country after coming under machine-gun and bazooka fire from terrorists in an attack that left eight dead.

“We’re here to make sure the mullahs don’t make plans to attack you,” a policeman told the Monitor wryly.

Models sashayed down the aisle with bare arms and, in some cases, legs (at least to mid-thigh level), in stark contrast to the modest Islamic dress worn by most women in the country. As they posed for the cameras and completed their pirouettes, the enthusiastic and fashion-starved audiences responded with roars of approval.

Lahore fashion week takes on Talibanization in Pakistan / The Christian Science Monitor – CSMonitor.com

In the current partisan environment every issue becomes politicized even without merit. It is surprising therefore that the trial of Pakistan scientist Dr. Aafia Siddiqui is gathering such little coverage in the mainstream press. The potential for other admittedly more high profile cases being tried in civil courts in Manhattan has caused apoplexy among the likes of Cheney and the hawks, but the current trial seems to warrant nary a whimper.

Dr. Siddiqui’s case is also interesting and bizarre for a number of other reasons. She was not charged for the alleged crime for which she was arrested, but for supposedly seizing a weapon while under arrest and opening fire on US troops. She was arrested in Afghanistan carrying “chemicals” and  carrying a list of potential terror targets including the Statue of Liberty and the Empire State Building, Siddiqui insisted she was not planning any attacks. Somehow, while under lock and key in an Afghan police station she got hold of an unsecured weapon and began firing at US troops.

The oddity of the case comes in the form of the physical evidence, or lack of it. The only party shot in the incident was Dr. Siddiqui herself, and there is no other physical evidence to support the case. In the small room where she was held and supposedly undertook her attack, there were no bullets, no casings, no bullet debris from the rifle and no bullet holes from the rifle in the room. This is an odd and under-reported case, which just gets curiouser and curiouser the deeper you delve into it.

Pakistan scientist Aafia Siddiqui’s lawyers concluded their arguments before a Manhattan court on Monday, insisting that there’s no physical evidence that their client had tried to kill American soldiers and FBI agents.

The trial of Dr Aafia, charged with shooting at her US interrogators in Afghanistan, moved into the final stage. As defence and prosecution lawyers delivered their closing arguments, the 16-member jury went into deliberations to reach a verdict. Sources said the verdict could come early next week.

Dr Aafia, who received graduate degrees from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Brandeis University in biology and neuroscience while living in the US between 1991 and June 2002, wasn’t in the courtroom as closing statements were made.

Highlighting contradictions in the accounts by prosecution witnesses, Dr Aafia’s lawyer Linda Moreno said there’s no physical evidence that her client handled the rifle or fired it.

In her closing statement, Ms Moreno said the soldiers and the FBI agents in the room contradicted each other in their testimony and their own statements given to the FBI following the incident.

The defence lawyer also said there were no M-4 bullets, no bullet debris from the M-4 rifle and no bullet holes from the rifle in the room.

“The indisputable fact is there is no physical evidence that an M-4 rifle was touched by Dr Aafia or fired by her,” Ms Moreno said.

She described the 300-square foot room in a court in Ghazni, where the alleged shooting took place as a “sort of a Bermuda Triangle of a room” if you believe the government’s theory in the case.

DAWN.COM | Front Page | Aafia case enters final stage

UPDATE - Verdict is in. Guilty as charged

Pakistani neuroscientist Aafia Siddiqui was convicted Wednesday of attempting to kill Americans in Afghanistan in 2008.

The jury found Siddiqui guilty of seven counts, including attempted murder and armed assault on U.S. officers.

The Manhattan jury began deliberations Monday afternoon and sent a note shortly before 2 p.m. Wednesday saying they had reached a verdict.

Siddiqui listened to the verdict without emotion but let out an outburst once the jury was escorted out of the courtroom.

“This is a verdict from Israel, not America,” she said. “Anger should be directed to where it belongs. I can testify to this. I have proof.”

Authorities removed her from the courtroom. She will be sentenced May 6.

Pakistani scientist found guilty of attempted murder – CNN.com

There would be a certain irony – others might see the hand of cosmic humor – in the latest DNA research that seeks to demonstrate that the Pashtun may be one of the ten “Lost Tribes of Israel”.  There are more than 40 million Pashtuns around the world including around 10 million in Afghanistan and nearly 30 million in Pakistani.

There is some circumstantial historical evidence to support the claim. Many Pashtuns have grown up with stories of their people being “Children of Israel”. Tribal lore has it that they are descended from the Ephraim tribe which was driven out of Israel by the Assyrian invasion in 700BC. Archeological evidence shows an ancient Jewish settlement close to Afghanistan’s border with Iran, including where a graveyard with tombs carved in Hebrew. Kabul also has an ancient synagogue long abandoned. If there is a God, He would have a wicked sense of humor if the research proves this correct.

Experts at Mumbai’s National Institute of Immunohaematology believe Pashtuns could be one of the ten “Lost Tribes of Israel”.

The Israeli government is funding a genetic study to establish if there is any proof of the link.

An Indian geneticist has taken blood samples from the Pashtun Afridi tribe in Lucknow, Northern India, to Israel where she will spend the next 12 months comparing DNA with samples with those of Israeli Jews.

The samples were taken in Lucknow’s Malihabad area because it was regarded as the only place safe enough to conduct such a controversial project for Muslims.

Shanaz Ali a senior research fellow, will lead the study at the Technion Israel Institute of Technology in Tel Aviv…

Navras Aafreedi, a leading researcher on the Lost Tribes of Israel, said the DNA investigation could have major modern repercussions.

“It could be seen as scientific validation of traditional belief about the Israelite origin of [Pashtuns] and can have interesting ramifications for Muslim-Jew relations in particular and the world at large,” he said.

Taliban may be descended from Jews – Telegraph

The US has been critical of Pakistan’s efforts to root out insurgency leadership in the Federally Administrated Tribal Areas(FATA). Much of the worst criticism has been reserved for Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) long suspected of offering covert support and sympathy to the insurgency. However, as it often the case with these issues the reality is more comples, and what is presented for consumption by the general public is only part of the story.

Recently an unnamed source within ISI leaked the fact that the CIA and the ISI together have run over 60 operations against Al-Qaeda and other key extremist commanders attempting to hide in the FATA region and Baluchistan. The missions allegedly included “snatch and grabs” operations, the abduction of insurgency commanders, as well as assassination attempts on extremist leaders. The operations were carried out on the basis of intelligence inputs provided by both the US and the Pakistani agencies showing that the level of partnership and co-operation runs deeper than casual observers are led to believe.

Although President Obama and his top aides have never discussed these highly classified missions in public, such counterterrorism operations are expected to increase, along with the deployment of 30,000 more US forces in the next year, as part of the revamped strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan.

US Central Command Chairman General David Petraeus has also made it clear that following the surge there would be more focus on the counterterrorism operations.

Testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, earlier this month, General Petraeus had said that more such commando offensive against hard-core Al-Qaeda and Taliban extremists could be seen in the near future.

“We actually will be increasing our counterterrorist component of the overall strategy,” General Petraeus had told the Senators.

‘ISI, CIA ran over 60 join operations against Qaeda commanders hiding in FATA’

While much of the Western military action is confined by nominal national boundaries, the insurgents and jihadists they fight have no such restrictions. The West is committed to an outdated model. It is engaged in Afghanistan, for example, but the forces they fight there are a transnational movement who care little to UN mandates that confine the West to only operate within set borders. For examples, a recent raid on a Talban stronghold in South Waziristan by Pakistan forces netted four foreign fighters including Arabs and a Bangladeshi. This transnational movement continues to prove difficult to combat based on outdated notions of military engagement. We wonder how long it will take the planning hierarchy to work this out and rework their strategy as a result..

Security forces raided a private hospital before dawn in a Taliban stronghold in South Waziristan on Thursday, killing four foreign militants and a woman, officials said. 27 others were also arrested…

Troops laid siege to the Hafiz Hospital in Wana, which belonged to a former MNA, at 2:00am (2100 GMT) sparking gun battles until around 7:00am (0200 GMT), local administration and intelligence officials said.

A security official said the raid followed a tip off that wounded militants were brought to the hospital from Sherwangi, a Taliban-dominated area where Pakistan has been pressing a major offensive.

“Commandos and security forces raided the hospital. Militants fired on the troops and in the gunfight, which lasted more than four hours, four militants and a woman were killed, while 27 others were arrested,” said the official.

“One soldier was also injured. The three dead militants appear to be Arabs and one of Sudanese origin,” the official added.

The identity of the woman was not initially clear, the official said.

An intelligence official and a local administrator confirmed the raid and deaths of four foreign militants, but said their identities were not immediately clear. The intelligence official said 27 suspects were arrested.

DAWN.COM | Pakistan | Troops kill four militants in South Waziristan

It is no great secret that the most extreme madrassas of Pakistan and Afghanistan mark the front line of the battle against radicalization of young Muslims and the potential to stem the flow of ready recruits for the insurgent groups. A recent development though is an increase in the thousands of foreigners who have flocked to such conservative Islamic schools in Pakistan despite attempts by the government to stop such activities. Pakistan and foreign governments consider the international students a potential security threat. The students could export extremism back to their own countries, or stay and fight in Pakistan and neighboring Afghanistan. The history of these madrassas is closely linked to to the history of conflict.

“We are concerned, but what can we do?” said an official from one Southeast Asian embassy in Pakistan who asked for anonymity because he did not want to upset his hosts. “We can’t stop people from traveling…It is their constitutional right.”

Officials are concerned in general about foreigners coming to Pakistan for training in militancy. Most recently, five young American Muslims were arrested after meeting with representatives of an al-Qaida linked group and asking for training, a Pakistani law enforcement official said Thursday…

Anas bin Saleem, a 12-year-old American, spends seven hours a day sitting cross-legged on the floor memorizing the Quran. In Anas’ school, Jamia Binoria, several hundred students from 29 countries live alongside 5,000 Pakistani pupils, teachers said. Binoria is one of the largest schools in the country and one of at least four schools in Karachi with foreign students on its books.

Anas says he’s not taught militant Islam at Binoria. But clerics firmly endorse suicide bombings and jihad against Western troops in Afghanistan on the school Web site, and Anas admits he is fed up with anti-American barbs from teachers and pupils.

“I get it like every second,” says Anas, who left Louisiana last year with his Pakistani-born mother, barely spoke the national language when he arrived in Pakistan and misses Hannah Montana. “I’m like shut up and don’t talk like that.”

Only a handful of the foreign students are Westerners; most are Asians and Africans in the late teens or early 20s. Many come to Pakistan for a cheap Islamic education, albeit a conservative one, part of a tradition of Muslims traveling to gain knowledge that goes back centuries.

News from The Associated Press

Many of the maddrassas in that region are allegedly Saudi funded, a legacy of US involvement. These establishments, in part, led to the creation of Al Qaeda. When the US wanted the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan thwarted, it needed to recruit a new generation of fighters. Saudi funded and helped to create madrassas in the area.  In Afghanistan, these madrassas were used as de facto recruiting centers to indoctrinate young men eventually turned them into fighters for the Northern Alliance, which formed an integral part of the force that subsequently defeated the Soviets.

The madrassas are appealing to a certain sector of the Islamic world. As regional commentator, Valis Nasr describes it:

“They are recruited from among the lower classes and lower-middle classes. In the Afghan-Pakistan arena, there are members of Pashtun tribes who enroll in these madrassas. There are peasant children from the peasant backgrounds. And occasionally there are also lower middle-class children they are very able to recruit among people in Pakistan particularly who don’t have any access to any other kind of schooling. …That’s why the ideology that’s propagated by these schools is so significant in shaping minds in the Muslim world. So if regular schooling is not schooling people, and schools that propagate fanaticism are schooling people, it doesn’t take a brain surgeon to figure out what would be the impact on society.”

This model has been emulated now throughout the region, and they are now endemic through all parts of the Muslim world. Nasr comments on the spread of maddrassas:

“…They’ve been spreading throughout Central Asia, but there have been Central Asian students, Filipino students, Indonesian students, Nigerian students, Arab students, thanks to scholarship funding provided from Persian Gulf and Saudi Arabia, that have been going to these schools… The argument I make is that there is an undercurrent of terror and fanaticism that go hand in hand in the Afghanistan-Pakistan arc, and extend all the way to Uzbekistan. And you can see reflections of it in Bosnia, in Kosovo, in Indonesia, in the Philippines.  For instance, in one madrassa in Pakistan, I interviewed 70 Malaysian and Thai students who are being educated sideby side with students who went on to the Afghan war and the like. These people return to their countries, and then we see the results in a short while. … At best, they become hot-headed preachers in mosques that encourage fighting Christians in Nigeria or in Indonesia. And in a worst case, they actually recruit or participate in terror acts.  In order to have terrorists, in order to have supporters for terrorists, in order to have people who are willing to interpret religion in violent ways, in order to have people who are willing to legitimate crashing yourself into a building and killing 5,000 innocent people, you need particular interpretations of Islam. Those interpretations of Islam are being propagated out of schools that receive organizational and financial funding from Saudi Arabia. In fact, I would push it further: that these schools would not have existed without Saudi funding. They would not have proliferated across Pakistan and India and Afghanistan without Saudi funding. They would not have had the kind of prowess that they have without Saudi funding, and they would not have trained as many people without Saudi funding.”

The duality of the Saudi relationship of the West is perhaps best described by Richard Holbrooke now the Special envoy but at the times of this comment an ex-US Ambassador to the UN. Holbrooke could be brutality honest when he was in private life, now back in the fray his comments are less open. Holbrooke said:

“I think that one of the tragedies of this story is that the Saudi Arabians exported their problem by financing the schools, the madrassas, all through the Islamic world. I saw this in Uzbekistan a few years after Uzbekistan got out of the Soviet Union, became an independent state in cities like Tashkent and Samarkand, where the Saudis were funding these schools teaching Koranic studies and creating a class of people for whom education was simply the Holy Book, the Koran. … What happened here was that the Saudi Arabian government had two wings. The mainland Saudi leadership went into financial issues, defense issues, and they controlled the elite establishment in order to purchase support. From the more fundamentalist religious groups, they gave certain other ministries, the religious ministries, education ministries, to more fundamentalist Islam leaders. And that’s how the split occurred. So the Saudi government was, to a certain extent, pursuing internally inconsistent policies throughout this period — reaching out to the West with sophisticated, well educated, internationally minded leaders like its foreign minister, like its ambassador in Washington and others. At the same time, it was funding with this vast oil revenue a different set of efforts: education, which was narrowly based in the Koran. …”

If you have read many of our editorials you will know that we are of the mind that the best way to effect change in a country is from within. We also believe that the way you best get your point across is not by sanctions or ostracizing but by engaging. In a brave and controversial move, a new TV personality in Pakistan is taking the fight to the heart of religious fundamentalism  in creating a character in drag, a transvestite by another name, that pokes fun at the zealots in the country,

Ali Sallem is the actor in question.  His alter ego is “Begum Nawazish Ali”, the widow of an army colonel, Saleem, is a 30-year-old television presenter challenging Pakistan’s societal norms as the first open bisexual, a highly contentious act in a country where homosexuality is banned under sharia law. So far the reaction by many sophisticated Pakistanis has been good. They find the humor and satire to their taster, but the Begum persona is causing offense, of course, in more traditional sectors.

Surprisingly the show has produced many high profile supporters who are braving censure to appear on Begum’s panel as celebrity interviewees in the style of Dame Edna or Graham Norton. Pakistani politicians, film stars and army dignitaries have all recently made guest appearances on the show which is the new hit on the Aaj Channel. Sallem even has a word for those he seeks to challenge, he terms the fundamentalists “fundu” . More power to Salleem and Begum we say.

Saleem, whose show was first aired in 2005, is planning to take the act a stage further. The series will be filmed live from this autumn and include topics that have, until now, been considered taboo. He has also created another “female” character called Rengeli, more “flamboyant and tarty”, who will host a game show. “What’s happening in Pakistan is that society is becoming more polarised,” he says. “There’s one set of people inclined towards a hardline vision and another reacting to this madness by having raves on the beach and popping pills. I want to help people develop tolerance. We have revamped the entire show and it is now going to be more thematic and address issues of sexuality, Pakistani hunks, legalising alcohol and having pubs and bars.”

Cross-dressing is rarely condoned in Islamic society, and Saleem’s act, filled with camp, smutty double entendres, would normally draw the censure of TV executives, mullahs and politicians. Growing up in a privileged Pakistani household (his father was an army officer) he became inspired by female figureheads such as Benazir Bhutto, Margaret Thatcher and the classic Bollywood singer and actress, Noor Jahan. He says: “I grew up in a military environment under Zia al Huq’s regime which had a deeply conservative, madrassa culture which I think is pseudo-Islamic culture.

“I was nine when I became a fan of Benazir Bhutto and her liberal consciousness. All my teachers were wives of army officers and I loved dressing up. Every time my mother left the house, I would dress up in her clothes. When she found out I was doing this, she’d scold me. I did a lot of role-playing. When I was a little older, she took me to a psychiatrist and told him I was attracted to other men. He told her I was perfectly normal, and explained that there’s a physical gender and an emotional gender. Emotionally, I had always felt as if I was a woman.”

Saleem’s family accepted his sexuality, and he began doing skits at his school, Cadet College Hasan Abdal (considered the Eton of Pakistan) dressed as Benazir Bhutto, which amused teachers and pupils. Initially, friends discouraged him from taking a drag act to producers. “Some of my friends called up and said, “Are you mad? People will not let you out of the house”. But the exact opposite happened. Some of the most fundu [fundamental] people have come up to me and said I am doing a fantastic job.”

But at first the show was met with suspicion from President Pervez Musharaff’s military commanders, because they feared references to the Begum’s fictional husband as an army colonel might be a slight on the country’s military regime. After the fourth programme, death threats were sent. “It was already very popular by then,” Saleem says. “I got a call from the channel’s HQ to say we were showing an army colonel’s wife to be flirting with men, and that we might be suggesting army officer wives are flirtatious. I got a call from military intelligence who invited me for tea. I thought they’d put me behind bars but instead, they had a proper tea laid out, with all the treats, and the colonel gave me his phone number and told me to ring him if I had any trouble. He said, “Just be patriotic and keep Pakistan in your mind”

Life’s a drag act for the TV presenter challenging homophobia in Pakistan – Asia, World – The Independent

It is difficult for a Westerner to understand the relationship between Pakistan and the big-tent coalition insurgency we term the Taliban. If one reads the many politicians, analysts, commentators, populists and self-professed experts espousing opinions about how Pakistan should do this, believe this, and perform to this set of standards, it is easy to become confused as to who has the correct approach.

The Pakistani military and intelligence services often bear the brunt of the criticisms as to the lack of progress in rooting out the Taliban. The Pakistanis (and those in on the great charade) when confronted on this, nod their heads, apologize for their poor progress to date, and then get on with business as usual. They will, of course, also request further funds, resources and weaponry to help them make faster work of it. This frustrates the harried Western diplomat on the receiving end of such requests, who depending on the mood of the day will act with largesse as a sign of faith, or demand better efforts. Again, the Pakistanis will nod sagely; they will promise to do better, but still request more weapons or money first to speed thig s up.

The Pakistanis are not being duplicitous for the sake of it; they are wrestling with the reality of their situation, geographically and historically. The ramifications are global.  In the West is caused analysis paralysis. President Obama is caught between a rock and a hard place in relation to his Afpak policy. If he sallies forth with more boots on the ground as his military advisers demand, he will lambasted by his own party. We also predict that he is unlikely to see much progress made so will die slowly roasted on the long-term failure of the Afghanistan mission. If he fails to act as the military demands, President Obama will be politically crucified by the hawkish opposition and undermined from within by his Defense advisers. There are options available to him that give him a limited saving of face as we have reported before, but for the West to think there is some grand strategy for resolution just out of reach is, sadly, naïve. Meanwhile, the Pakistanis grind on with their own plan of pacifying the West for their advantage while not snookering themselves for the longer term.

Recently, intelligence reports are circulating that suggest the leader of the Pakistani Taliban coalition, Mullah Omar, has recently been moved to Karachi with the assistance of the Pakistani intelligence service. One is led to the inevitable question; why would Mullah leave the relative safety of Quetta, the Baluchistan Province capital, where he has been safely ensconced under the watchful (and some same protective eye ) of Pakistani intelligence? Omar is much more visible in Karachi, and much more prone to assassination or capture by Western intelligence, unless he is guarded and pre-warned of any such attempts. Pakistani is also in a difficult spot, and many believe is hedging its bets.

Al Jazeera correspondent, Imran Khan, explains the complexity of the situation well. He says:

“…Pakistan is growing increasingly worried that India has begin to support Afghanistan and eroded Pakistan’s influence there.  There is also a very real fear that the US will abandon Afghanistan soon.  The Taliban then provide a natural buffer to that influence and by supporting Mullah Omar you gain leverage. Omar comes from the countries Pashtun majority who are interwoven ethnically with Pakistan so on the surface at least there seems to be a reason to support the cleric.

This double game is shrouded in mystery and telling fact from fiction is incredibly difficult. Much of the ideas in this blog I have gleaned from Intelligence sources, military contacts and analysts. It’s incredibly difficult getting anybody to go on the record explaining whether the ISI support the Taliban or not.

But what is clear is this. Pakistan has a role to play in Afghanistan. Officially at least Pakistan supports the government of Afghanistan, but given the complicated nature of Afghan politics there are some in Pakistani officialdom  who believe having an ace up your sleeve is not a bad idea, even if that ace is the Taliban – They seek him here, they seek him there

There is it issue in a sound bite. The US and its Western allies have a short term game plan. They are looking for a strategic victory and a quick exit. Pakistan is well aware that when the day comes that the last Western soldier marches out of Afghanistan whether in defeat or short term victory that the Pashtuns will remain and that India will still be their neighbor and rival. The mindset of the West is results are required fast, maximum results with minimal casualties.  The locals know however reform is a journey over a distance, not a sprint. Pakistan and Afghanistan are nations still forming.  This fast results mentality was a failing in the Iraqi strategy that the US seems to be about to fall foul of again, and the Pakistanis are watching closely.

For example, there is case cited  by Dexter Filkins in ‘The Forever War‘ from Iraq where US troops wanting to search an Iraqi village for arms, placed a blond female soldier, hair flowing freely, up on the front of a tank and told the locals she was up for auction. The Iraqi men went wild, this offer akin to offering them the keys to Sodom and Gomorrah. While the Iraqi men were so engaged, other troops searched the village entering their homes where women and children were unsupervised by their men. The Americans kept the Iraqi males busy bidding for the blond outside. The troops seized arms caches, then told the Iraqi men that the bids were not good enough, and drove away. The US patrol leader deemed it an efficient operation as no life was lost. However, when the event was reported the troop commander was censured. However, the cultural impact on the village was long-lasting. The men were abased in their eyes of their wives.  Pakistan heeds these lessons well, and they know that when the Americans go there will be consequences to deal with and that the Taliban will be part of that reckoning.

So this is what is really going on with the Pakistanis and the Taliban. The Pakistanis are wager for wealth and weaponry, both in and of themselves and also as a counter to what they see as the growing partnership between the US and India. To that end they pacify, cajole and ask constantly for resources to assist them. They do on occasion sally out and perform a military operation taking out a bad cell of extremists. This is part of a positioning with the West and their own people. However, at the same time they court the Taliban leadership cognoscente of the fact that the Pashtuns are a constant I their future. Until the Western diplomats understand this and plan their strategies accordingly, the situation will remain the same. This is the reality of the region that the military planners in the Pentagon cannot see. They see operations, terrain maps, troop strength and security gains. They fail to see that the Taliban cannot be eradicated, they are the native population, and the Pakistanis know this much better than any foreign observer.

Despite China’s claims to be a developing country and not yet experienced in foreign diplomacy, it can on occasion make very astute moves. China appears to be refining the blunt and brutal diplomacy tools they used in their early days, such as the arms for minerals deals in the Congo, and using its relative wealth to cement relationships. If one looks at the difference of approach undertaken by the US and China towards Pakistan, there are learnings there.  

 The US has used threats, coercion, military force, and the promise of arms to attempt to make Pakistan bend to its will. Such pressure may produce results, but in the longer term such a strategy rarely results in friendly or trusting relationships. China is learning from watching others, so it reached out to Pakistan in a different way. It is helping to fund the creation of 12 much needed dams in Pakistan. Such civil infrastructure improvements makes Chinese investment welcome, improves the lot of the average Pakistani, and gives China important access to further development opportunities. The US approach is unlikely to see them asked back after the security crisis passes, whereas China is taking a much more strategic, long-term view.

Pakistan and China have signed a $1 billion accord to construct 12 dams in Pakistan in all the four provinces.

A Chinese import/export bank would furnish $700 million loans, while the remaining $300 million would be taken care of by the Planning Commission (PC).

Sources say WAPDA had prepared a feasibility report, according to which 650,000 acres of land would be brought under irrigation. An MOU has been signed in this regard between WAPDA and Axiom Bank (import/export) of China.

DAWN.COM | Pakistan | Pakistan-China sign $1 billion accord