Can the US learn the lessons of Ethiopia in Somalia?
There are some analogies between the US position in Iraq, and the Ethiopian experience in Somalia. Ethiopia entered Somalia to assist the government to combat a fundamental Muslim insurgent group, the Shabab that threatened to overrun the country. The result is that Ethiopia has been an unpopular occupier in Somalia among many locals, for the last two years. Ethiopia is the strongest military force in the region, and it believed it was acting in the best interest of Somalia. Ethiopia now wants to leave, but this proving more of a challenge than expected. Is this a forewarning of the issues the US will face as it tries to exit Iraq?
The Somalia exercise has been costly for Ethiopia both in terms of fiscal resources, personnel, and also in terms of political capital. Ethiopia openly stated that it intended in the next few weeks to withdraw, leaving the weak Somalia government to manage its own affairs. Somalia, in chaos for decades, has a figurehead government favored by the West in preference to a probable fundamentalist Muslim replacement government should the existing regime fall. . Somalia, and in effect the Ethiopian army, has been battling the Shabab who are claiming Somalia as an Islamic Republic. As soon as Ethiopia began to draw down troops, the Shabab group began regaining ground. In southern Somalia, the Shabab have already taken full control, raising their flag and creating new regional government to fill the vacuum created by the withdrawal of the Ethiopian army in the area. The Shabab are the Somalia equivalent of Al Qaeda, and are widely believed to be in communication and co-operation with them. It is believed members of Shabab were involved in, or are at least harboring, the terrorists that bombed the US Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998.
Today, Ethiopia had to acknowledge that their withdrawal will probably result in a Shabab victory and the downfall of the Somali government. As a result, Ethiopian troops are flooding back over the border into Somali to combat Shabab insurgents converging on the Somali capital, Mogadishu. The West isn’t willing to help given their past experiences in Somalia (‘Black Hawk Down’ being the most recent US expereince there), so the job remains with the Ethiopians. They are trying to get out, but having been the dominant military and political power in the country, are finding withdrawal a practical impossibility.
This is a similar situation that the US could face as they attempt to disengage themselves from Iraq. When you have been the power player in country and you leave, someone else with their own agenda wants to fill the top dog position that you leave vacant, and it may not be the duly elected government that one wants. The Shabab have played a strategic hand, harassing the Ethiopians to the point of frustration, developing local support based on religious and ethic grounds, and frustrating any attempt to contain them. It appears the Shabab, Taliban and Al Qaeda may be sharing the same play book. Ethiopia faces a hard decision. Does it withdraw and leave the Somali people to their fate or remain engaged for the sake of regional stability. This may end up being exactly the decision the US has to face in Iraq. We hope the US analysts are following the Somali conflict so that they can learn from the Ethiopian experience.
